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Expectations have been revised upwards for regional equity markets and private assets in particular, with private equity, infrastructure, and european equities showing the strongest improvements. For each asset class, american century develops a set of assumptions for return, risk, and correlation. Each of our inputs is debatable, as data limitations necessitate lots of simplifying assumptions, and each input can substantially affect the final estimate.
Returns are expected to range from 4.47% for global treasury bonds hedged to 9.28% for us private equity venture capital Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance Refer to the table on page 10 for complete details.
We believe that the outlook for more normal, positive levels of fiscal spending, together with strong private capital investment, set the tone for a more optimistic asset return environment (exhibit 3).
Our assumptions see attractive real return potential, while differentiation across assets provides a richer hunting ground for active investors Our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations Use our interactive version to download the excel in your chosen currency. Gain insights into 2025 capital market assumptions for private markets
Understand key trends, updated return expectations, and strategic implications. The capital market assumptions working group, a subset of ipc members, publishes its assumptions as a white paper report. We provide both arithmetic returns and geometric returns, given that the former informs the optimization process regarding expected outcomes, while the latter informs the investor about the rate at which asset classes might be expected to grow wealth over the long run.
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